Cotton experts have slashed by 15% their forecast for Pakistan's cotton crop following devastating floods - but signalled that the losses could have been greater were it not for the sowing of genetically modified seed.

The International Cotton Advisory Committee said that cotton output in Pakistan, the world's fourth-ranked producer, now looked likely to come in at 1.9m tonnes (8.7m bales), some 300,000 tonnes less than originally expected.

The estimate reflected in part the loss "entirely" of 6-8% of cotton sowings to the floods, which have killed an estimated 1,500 people and affected 20m others.

"Many cotton districts in the provinces of Punjab and Sindh have been severely hit by floods," the committee said, adding that "more rains are forecast over the next week".

'Pest multiplication'

The balance of the losses were attributed to follow-up damage, including the standing water that will "suffocate the root system" of plants, and the spread of pests.

"Hot and humid conditions provide suitable conditions of pest multiplication, including bollworms that affect the fruit directly," the ICAC said.

However, the committee, an intergovernmental group, also flagged the resistance that many crops will have thanks to have been planted with genetically modified seed in their first season of official release.

"At least half the 2010-11 crop was planted to biotech varieties resistant to bollworm."

While falling short of initial hopes, a cotton crop of 1.9m tonnes is in line with Pakistan's historical output. In the 1990s, the country clocked up a series of sub-1.5m-tonne harvests.

Consumption impact

The ICAC added that it was cutting its estimate for cotton use by mills in Pakistan, the third-biggest consuming country, but said that the shortfall would be made up elsewhere, leaving use estimates unchanged.

Cotton for September stood $0.06 cents lower at 87.67 cents a pound in late deals in New York, with the better traded December lot down 0.28 cents at 83.58 cents a pound.