Forecasts for rains eased fears for dryness affecting Brazil's
next soybean crop too, coming on the eve of the start of what is expected to be
a record planting season.
"The Brazil weather forecasts have now added rain for Mato
Grasso and northern Brazil during the last half of September," US Commodities
"This would be timely. Rain is needed to get soybean
planting under way."
Closely-followed crop scout Michael Cordonnier, at Soybean and
Corn Advisor, said that the forecast of showers "late next week in Mato Grosso",
Brazil's top soybean state.
"Now we will have to wait and see if they materialise or
Just in time
Rains would be well-timed, with a state-enforced 90-day
soybean-free period in central Brazil expiring on September 15, which thus marks
the opening of the soybean window.
However, the sowing concerns are not over, given the extent
of the current dryness in the region, pat of which have gone some 115-120 days
"That is not so unusual. It often does not rain between the
end of the rainy season in May until September," Dr Cordonnier said.
But what it means is that growers need significant rains
before embarking on sowings.
"If Mato Grosso gets two inches of rain, farmers will go ahead
and plant. But if it is half an inch, it depends what it is in the forecast.
"What farmers do not want is to go ahead and plant and there
to be no follow-up rains, meaning plants germinate, but do not develop and have
to be resown."
September is the hottest month in central Brazil, and with
temperatures currently hotter than normal, at some 39-41 degrees Celsius.
A delay in sowings would not be a threat to hopes of the country
reaping a record crop, which many analysts, including Dr Cordonnier, see
topping 80m tonnes.
"If sowing gets delayed a couple of weeks, it does not
matter for the yield.
"But what it will do is delay the harvesting of the crop the
other end," hurting importers which are struggling for supplies after drought-hit
South American and US crops, and are relying on Brazil having shipments
available from around the end of January.
Indeed, farmers are so keen to attempt to tap this early
demand, which promises higher prices than later-harvested crop, that Brazil is
sold out of seed for early-maturing varieties, he said.
An early harvest also improves farmers' scope for planting a
follow-on corn crop, so exploiting high prices of the grain as well.