15:07 UK, 17th June 2009, by Agrimoney.com
Former Soviet bloc 'to tighten hold on wheat'

The former Soviet states are to strengthen their grip on the growing global trade in wheat, whose price looks set to remain well below last year's highs, a key report has said.

While the US, Europe and Australia will remain important producers, the former Soviet Union "is expected to be the dominant source of wheat exports" by the end of the report's forecast period in 2018.

The former Soviet bloc, which exported negligible amounts of wheat for much of its time under Communism, raised exports to nearly 36m tonnes last year, overtaking the US at the top the wheat exporters' league.

And the bloc's major producers, Kazakhstan, Russian and Ukraine, are all targeting further increases to output.

Hungry mouths

The report, a joint briefing from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, forecast that wheat prices would remain about 50% higher than their 1997-2006 levels over the next decade, supported by rising demand from developing nations.

However, this would leave prices well below last year's levels, when Chicago wheat rose above $13 a bushel, more than twice its current price.

Demand would be driven by the need for countries such as Nigeria and Egypt to feed fast-growing populations.

"Saudi Arabia is also projected to confirm its status as a major importer in view of the recent change in its policy to gradually phase out large production subsidies," the report said, adding that it forecast a 2% annual rise in global wheat trading over the next 10 years. 

EXTRA OPTIONS
PRINTABLE VERSION
EMAIL TO A FRIEND
RSS FEEDS
EXTERNAL LINKS
Russia keeping grain to 'avoid loss of face'
Opinion: Russia's grain ambitions look serious
Former Soviet states unite behind grain pool