Brazil's coffee plantation owners are poised for a more encouraging year than its farmers, who are on track for their first fall in output for four years.

While the official statistics agency, IBGE, forecast a 14.3% drop to 2.29m tonnes in 2009 coffee harvest, this fall was smaller than traders had expected. Earlier data from Brazil's agricultural ministry had forecast output as low as 2.12m tonnes.

Growers had been braced for a steep drop in output after last year's bumper crop of 2.79m tonnes. Brazil's coffee plantations operate on a two year cycle, with alternate years of stronger and weaker production.

Favourable rains have been credited for this year's relatively strong crop in Brazil, the world's biggest coffee producer and exporter. Andrea Illy, chief executive of Illycafe, the Italian coffee processor, said earlier this week that output could rise above 2.5m tonnes if rains continue.

Farmers struggle

Brazil's farmers, however, are to see an end to a record of improving annual production stretching to 2005, despite planting nearly the same acreage, the IBGE said, blaming the fall in part on high fertilizer costs.

Key growing areas have also been cursed by sparse rainfall.

Wheat output will drop by 13.5% and cotton by 20%, with corn production down 12.6%, the agency said.

Brazil's soybean crop, whose drought problems have helped boost international prices, will fall 2.3% year on year despite an increase in the area planted.