France has raised its soft wheat export hopes despite a 10% drop in exports so far this year, led by declines in shipments to the important Algerian and Moroccan markets.
FranceAgriMer said exports from Europe's biggest wheat producing state would hit 15.8m tonnes in 2009-10, an increase of 445,000 tonnes on the farm bureau's previous estimate.
The revision, which came as FranceAgriMer followed France's agriculture ministry in slashing its estimate of this year's harvest, implies an acceleration in export sales, pegging shipments down only 3.2% over the year.
Brazil opportunity
Exports so far in 2009-10 are down 10%, led by declines in shipments to the important Algerian and Moroccan markets, customs data showed on Wednesday.
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Soft wheat forecasts, 2009-10(change on previous estimate)
Plantings: 4.77m hectares (-150,000 hectares)
Harvest: 36.6m tonnes (-940,000 tonnes)
Exports inside EU: 7.09m tonnes (+165,000 tonnes)
Exports outside EU: 8.75m tonnes (+280,000 tonnes)
Year end stocks: 3.5m tonnes (-700,000 tonnes)
Source: FranceAgriMer |
And many analysts foresee a steep drop in sales from the European Union to external buyers, thanks to big crops in importing countries as well as the stronger euro.
The US Department of Agriculture has forecast a drop of 21% to 20.0m tonnes, and Rabobank foreseeing a 17.0m-tonne figure.
However, France also on Wednesday said that Brazil, which hitherto has not featured on the export radar, could represent a promising new market.
Brazil has typically relied for wheat imports largely on neighbour, and fellow Mercosur member, Argentina, which in on track for a second small harvest following drought and a switch to soybeans.
"The French economic mission in Brazil recently confirmed to us the possibility of France exporting to Brazil on condition of providing a compliant phytosanitary certificate and subject to standard controls on arrival," FranceAgriMer said.
Stocks estimate cut
FranceAgriMer's revision came as the bureau sliced by 940,000 tonnes, to 36.6m tonnes, its estimate of France's soft wheat harvest this year, a reduction in line with a farm ministry cut on Monday.
FranceAgriMer, like the ministry, blamed the downgrade on plantings data, which were, at 4.77m hectares, 150,000 hectares lighter than had been thought.
In line with the raised export hopes, and reduced production, the bureau cut its forecast for year-end stocks by 700,000 tonnes to 3.5m tonnes.
Slower trade
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France's biggest export markets so far, 2009-10 (change year on year)
1: Egypt, 430,953 tonnes (zero a year ago)
2: Algeria, 350,574 tonnes (-58%)
3: Italy, 228,305 tonnes (+17%)
4: Netherlands, 215,117 tonnes (-25%)
5: Belgium, 197,436 tonnes (-23%)
Source: French customs |
The slip in French exports to 2.45m tonnes in July and August reflected shipments both within the EU, where Italy and the Netherlands are among major buyers, and outside.
Algeria, the biggest buyer of French wheat in 2008-09, slowed imports by 58% to 350,600 tonnes. Morocco's purchases slumped by 92% to 18.400 tonnes.
However, Egypt accelerated purchases, taking 431,000 tonnes compared with zero during the first two months of 2008-09.
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