18:41 UK, 10th November 2009, by Agrimoney.com
Global soybean output to jump 19%, US says

Global soybean production is set to jump by nearly 19% this year thanks to record production in all of the world's big-three producing nations.

Washington has added more than 4m tonnes to its forecast for world soybean output in 2009-10, citing improved hopes for America, Brazil and third-ranked producer Argentina.

The upgrade to the US harvest estimate – which is now expected to set records for both production and yield - followed findings of higher pod counts in crops major producing states.

Argentine and Brazilian hopes were raised on expectations of a rise in plantings.

Argentina question 

The revisions – which were reflected in a 3.6m-tonne rise to 428.9m tonnes in the US forecast for total global oilseed production – were viewed as bearish for prices.

USDA soybean forecasts, 2009-10 (change from Oct estimate)

US output: 90.3m tonnes: (+1.9m tonnes)

Brazil output: 63.0m tonnes (+1m tonnes)

Argentine output: 53.0m tonnes (+0.5m tonnes)

Global output: 250.2m tonnes (+4.2m tonnes)

Global stocks at year end: 57.4m tonnes (+2.6m tonnes)

Soybeans for January stood 10.25 cents lower at $9.54 a bushel in early deals in Chicago.

However, analysts expressed some surprise at the 500,000-tonne upgrade to 53.0m tonnes in Washington's forecast for Argentine soybean production.

"There is some concern in Argentina about the dry conditions prevalent in some of the major growing areas," Vic Lespinasse, at GrainAnalyst.com, said.

"Meteorlogix Weather is forecasting mostly dry conditions the next five-seven days in the main grain areas."

Analysts at Oil World on Tuesday restated their concerns over the drought, which prompted them last week to slash by 2m tonnes, to 50m tonnes, their forecast for the country's soybean crop.

Crop losses could prove even worse unless weather conditions improve over the next three to six weeks, the German-based analysis group said.



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