The hangover from
transport setbacks is still being felt among rapeseed growers in Canada, but
prospects in Australia have improved thanks to decent weather – in most areas
of the country.
Grains Council slashed by 700,000 tonnes to 14.8m tonnes its forecast for
production of canola, the rapeseed variant, in Canada, citing agronomic
reasons, with the need to rotate crops, and a dent to farmers' cashflows from
the winter snarl-ups in the country's rail system.
In slowing exports,
and leaving unexpectedly large inventories of crops still on farm, the hiccups
had squeezed growers' cash flows.
old-crop supplies still undelivered, some farmers lack the funds to purchase
the inputs needed for canola," even though the oilseed offers "good
returns compared to other field crops, including wheat," the IGC said.
more interest is being shown in crops with lower production costs, such as
flaxseed and peas."
Canada's AAFC bureau
forecast domestic sowings
of dry peas at 1.61m hectares this year, a 21% jump year on year, with sowings
of the likes of beans, lentils and mustard seed also showing strong growth.
The IGC's revised
forecast for Canada's canola crop represents an 18% fall in production year on
year, and is below the 15.4m tonnes expected by the US Department of
Agriculture, although in line with the AAFC estimate.
However, the IGC
was more upbeat than other commentators on the Australian canola crop, which it
upgraded by 200,000 tonnes to 3.2m tonnes.
IGC canola/rapeseed production forecasts and (year on year change)
European Union: 21.5m tonnes, (+3%)
Canada: 14.8m tonnes, (-18%)
China: 14.4m tonnes, (unchanged)
Australia: 3.m tonnes, (-11%)
Ukraine: 2.1m tonnes, (-12%)
The USDA pegs the
crop at 3.1m tonnes and Australia's Abares bureau puts it at 2.95m tonnes.
soil moisture reserves across large parts of the winter cropping zone ahead of
planting, improving the outlook for both area and yields," the council
said, if acknowledging the appeal to Australian growers of "relatively more
attractive wheat prices".
'Pretty good shape'
In fact, most of
Australia is seen as viewed as enjoying favourable soil moisture levels for
newly-sown crops – bar some parts of New South Wales and Queensland on the east
problems in our particular patch of southern Queensland, Australia as a whole
is in pretty good shape," grain trader Pentag Nidera said.
hosing down in the West Australian wheat belt, with Narrogin, for example,
picking up almost 100mm for the month to date.
Australian grain growers are also off to a great start, with good rains
reported early this week extending through to Victoria and southern New South
Wales," with more rainfall due in the state over the weekend.
'More like summer'
The exception was
in northern New South Wales and southern Queensland, where "temperatures
more like early summer than late autumn right now", and a dearth of
rainfall prompting farmers to halt sowings with only some 50-60% of winter
crops in the ground, the broker said.
is, that if these areas don't get 25-50mm by the end of June, a bet which would
still be drawing short odds, that [unplanted] portion of the intended crop
might not go in at all."
The IGC trimmed by
200,000 tonnes to 67.9m tonnes its forecast for world rapeseed production in
2014-15, with the European Union harvest also upgrade, by 400,000 tonnes to
21.5m tonnes, thanks to "beneficial weather conditions".
estimates the EU crop at 21.6m tonnes, with the USDA pegging it at 21.5m tonnes.