A revival in pork exports will help American hog farmers reach breakeven in 2010 for the first time in two years, Washington has said in a report flagging a 10% jump in beef shipments too.

Hog price prospects had lost some potential to a surprisingly strong litter rate of 9.7 pigs per litter in the September-to-November period, compared with a figure of 9.5 a year before, which had offset some of breeders' efforts to curb a market oversupply.

"The bottom line is that the[data]… points to a 2010 pork production closer to 2% lower, year over year, than the almost-3% reduction expected last month," the US Department of Agriculture said.

Exports jump 

Nonetheless, with a weaker dollar and global economic revival raising US pork exports by 8.4% to 4.5bn pounds this year, lean hog prices were likely to average $43-45 per hundredweight in the first quarter, up 4.5% year on year.

For 2010 as a whole, lean hogs would sell for $44-49 a hundredweight, a 12% rise on 2009 prices, while feed costs looked set to remain restrained.

"Price forecasts for corn and soybean meal imply producer breakeven hog prices in the mid-$40 per hundredweight range," the USDA said in follow-up comments to last week's revision to farm commodity estimates.

"Most US hog operations could break even in 2010."

Purdue University estimates that hog farmers lost $5bn in 2008 and 2009, hurt first by higher feed prices and then by economic downturn and the impact of so-called "swine" flu, with Iowa State University calculating that producers have lost month in 24 out of the last 26 months.