Hungary and the UK are to drive a 2.4m-tonne rise in European Union soft wheat production this year, as growers desert barley, rye and triticale, Coceral has said.
The region's two biggest wheat producers, France and Germany, will see output drop despite a rise in sowings, the grain lobbying group said, foreseeing a fall in yields from last year's bumper levels
However, UK wheat production will jump by nearly 10% to 15.7m tonnes, well above the average of the last decade, reflecting higher plantings.
And Hungary's wheat output will rise by 11.1% to 4.8m tonnes, Coceral said. These figures are corrected for errors in Coceral's original report.
Winners and losers
The region's overall soft wheat crop will hit 133.1m tonnes, Coceral said, narrowly behind the 134.1m tonnes forecast by influential analysis group Strategie Grains.
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Coceral forecasts for EU grain output, 2010-11 (annual change)
Soft wheat: 133.08m tonnes (+1.8%)
Corn: 57.52m tonnes (+0.78%)
Barley: 56.58m tonnes (-8.8%)
Triticale: 11.29m tonnes (-7.1%)
Rye: 8.45m tonnes (-13.9%)
Oats: 8.18m tonnes (-1.7%)
Durum wheat: 7.76m tonnes (-8.9%)
Sorghum: 4.14m tonnes (-12.1%)
Total: 286.99m tonnes (-2.2%)
Data include Coceral corrections |
The increase will come largely at the expense of barley, for which production will slump by 5.5m tonnes to 56.6m tonnes.
Spring barley sowings, which proved particularly popular in Europe last year after wet weather put a hole in autumn planting schedules, will in France come in down 20%, and in the UK down more than 30%.
However, farmers have also turned away from rye - with plantings forecast down 16% in Germany, Europe's top-ranked producer � as well as sorghum and triticale, with Poland showing particular falls in plantings of the minor grains.
Corn is proving more popular, with production set to rise by 450,000 tonnes, Coceral said.
Europe's total grain harvest will fall by nearly 4m tonnes to 287m tonnes.
Rapeseed yields
The Brussels-based group added that Europe's rapeseed harvest will slide by 550,000 tonnes to 20.8m tonnes, reflecting a more conservative figure for yields than last year's average of 3.29 tonnes per hectare.
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Europe's rapeseed production league, 2010 (year-on-year change)
1: Germany, 5.63m tonnes (-10.7%)
2: France, 5.00m tonnes (-10.0%)
3: Poland, 2.39m tonnes (-3.5%)
4: UK, 2.14m tonnes (+9.7%)
5: Czech Republic, 1.09m tonnes (-3.7%)
Total: 20.77m tonnes (-2.6%)
Source: Coceral |
Sowings are likely to rise, encouraged by firm prices, with UK plantings growing particularly, up 11.9% at 650,000 hectares, enough to help production to a record 2.14m tonnes.
Rapeseed prices touched a nine-month high of E308.75 a tonne on Thursday, and have the potential to rise further, according to Jonathan Lane at UK grain merchant Gleadell.
"Demand remains strong and, although on paper we currently have enough supply, we need to see all EU countries to deliver decent crops," Mr Lane said.
"If there is a problem anywhere, prices have the potential to move higher."
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