17:16 UK, 29th October 2009, by Agrimoney.com
IGC lifts US corn forecast despite frost and rain

The International Grains Council has raised its forecast for America's corn production this year by 8m tonnes (315m bushels), casting doubt on expectations that frost and a late harvest have caused significant damage.

The influential intergovernmental body raised to 330m tonnes (13.0bn bushels) its estimate of the US corn harvest, the main factor for an increase in its forecast for global grains production in 2009-10.

While the figure leaves the IGC data in line with official Washington statistics released three weeks ago, they follow frosts and heavy rains which have caused severe hold-ups to the US harvest, making it the slowest since records began in 1985.

Just 20% of the crop was in the silo as of last Sunday, compared with an average of 58%.

"Wet weather and freezing temperatures further delayed the US harvest, but record yields are expected to increase the crop to 330m tonnes," the IGC said.

'Growing season over'

Expectations that harvest delays, coupled with freezing weather earlier in the month, could lead to harvest delays were cited by traders as a key reason for the rally of 16% in corn prices in the first three weeks of October.

Global corn crop forecasts, 2009-10 (change from Sept estimate)

Production: 789m tonnes (+4m tonnes)

Trade: 84m tonnes (-1m tonnes)

Consumption: 800m tonnes (+3m tonnes)

Year end stocks: 137m tonnes (+3m tonnes)

Source: International Grains Council

Prices have dropped back this week on forecasts of drier conditions, combined with deteriorating confidence in financial markets.

Nonetheless, many traders have pencilled in corn crop losses of about 100m-200m bushels to weather damage.

Alaron, the US broker, said that with crops in many states, including Illinois, Indiana and Michigan remaining 10-20% immature as of last weekend, there was scope for cuts to official US production estimates.

"The growing season is over so [corn in] these states never fully developed," Alaron said.

Differing opinions 

The IGC report forecast that weather damage would hit home in China, which has suffered drought in major producing regions.

"Yields in China are lower than anticipated," the council said, cutting its estimate for the country's corn crop by 3m tonnes to 154m tonnes.

Opinion over the Chinese harvest is divided between official forecasters, who foresee a crop near to last year's 166m tonnes, and external pundits, many of whom see production of nearer 150m tonnes.

Sowings to slip 

The IGC also, for a fourth successive month, raised its forecast for global wheat production, this time by 1m tonnes to 667m tonnes.

Global wheat crop forecasts, 2009-10 (change from Sept estimate)

Production: 667m tonnes (+1m tonnes)

Trade: 116m tonnes (+3m tonnes)

Consumption: 643m tonnes (unchanged)

Year end stocks: 188m tonnes (+3m tonnes)

Source: International Grains Council

While the European Union harvest had not lived up to expectations, and had lower protein content than last year, yields in North America had beaten forecast, with rain boosting prospects in Australia.

Planting of the 2010 crop among northern hemisphere producers had "progressed well" although, thanks to lower prices, sowings were expected to decline year on year.

The total grain harvest would come in at 1.76bn tonnes, the IGC said, raising its estimate by 7m tonnes. 



Related Agrimoney articles
Rain-hit US corn harvest falls further behind
China raises hopes for corn harvest
IGC raises wheat hopes for third month
Rising stocks estimate dashes grain rally
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