India looks unlikely to resume wheat exports despite another record harvest which may swell state inventories to 40m tonnes - the equivalent of nearly twice Australia's annual production.

The government's farm-support programme, aimed in part at meeting commitments to support India's rural economy, will buy some 24m tonnes of wheat in 2010-11, after a harvest expected at 82m tonnes, the US Department of Agriculture's New Delhi bureau said.

The buying programme could, as of June 1, expand state stocks by 20%, year on year, to within 1.3m tonnes of their record high set in 2002.

Nonetheless, India looks "unlikely… in the near future" to end a ban on wheat exports stretching back to February 2007, bar a temporary lifting last July before concerns over the weak monsoon fuelled concerns over food supplies.

A return of India to the export market could, in theory, add to the pressure on prices, following two years of strong harvests in major shippers including Australia, Canada and Europe.

Prices 'uncompetitive' 

The bureau attributed its analysis in part to the Indian government's reluctance to risk causing further food price inflation, which has also been fuelled by a jump in sugar prices.

At the $300 a tonne free-on-board that Indian wheat would sell for, including taxes and transportation charges, "there won't be many buyers, unless there is a very significant government subsidy, which under the present circumstances looks unlikely", the report said.

Egypt last week bought French wheat at below $170 a tonne, including freight.

The bureau also noted the "negligible" take-up, because of price, of the 650,000 tonnes of wheat product exports that India had permitted.

Wheat 'fatigue'

The report also raised doubts over India's likelihood of raising further its wheat production, noting a lack of irrigation, low applications of fertilizer and a limited availability of improved seed.

"Existing wheat varieties, released nearly a decade ago, are showing signs of fatigue," the bureau said.

More than three-quarter of wheat planted is susceptible to wheat rust, which could, some scientists believe, become a growing threat if climate change sets in.