13:01 UK, 13th October 2009, by Agrimoney.com
Livestock better bet than crops, Goldman says

Livestock looks a better bet than crops, which will miss out on a rebound in commodity prices led by energy markets over the next year, Goldman Sachs has said.

The investment bank forecast that commodities overall would return 17.5% over the next 12 months, as the economic recovery evident in improving US manufacturing data and "robust" Chinese statistics feed through.

Oil prices would hit $94 a barrel, a rise of more than 25% on Tuesday's price, boosted by increasing demand at a time of sluggish production growth pushed the market into a deficit.

Similar factors would "lend substantial support" to copper.

'Weaker fundamentals'

However, price rises among agricultural commodities would remain "limited" Goldman Sachs said, forecasting livestock returns of 5.0% over the year, with crops showing a marginal decline.

Goldman Sachs crop price forecasts for 12 months' time

Corn: $4.50 a bushel (Chicago)

Soybeans: $10.00 a bushel (Chicago)

Wheat: $5.50 a bushel (Chicago)

Cotton: $0.65 a pound (New York)

Coffee: $1.40 a pound (New York)

Cocoa: $2,700 a tonne (New York)

Sugar: $0.17 a pound (New York)

Source: Goldman Sachs

"Fundamentals have remained much weaker for the major grains and oilseeds largely owing to the very favourable US growing weather in recent months," the investment bank said.

"Current price levels are generally consistent with the fundamentals for the major crops."

The exception was corn, for which Goldman stuck by a forecast of $4.50 a bushel by next autumn, helped by increased demand for ethanol as oil prices rise.

Soybeans would be priced at $10 a bushel in a year's time, near their current price.

Cocoa and sugar, currently in vogue because of the squeeze on demand, were set for drops of 15-20%.

Hog recovery 

Livestock prices, meanwhile, would be supported by some increases in demand as economic recovery revives demand.

Goldman Sachs livestock price forecasts for 12 months' time

Live cattle: $1.10 a pound (Chicago)

Lean hogs : $0.80 a pound (Chicago)

Source: Goldman Sachs

"Overall inventory of cattle on feed remains exceptionally low," Goldman said.

Consumption of pork has already begun recovering, a revival which, coupled with herd cuts by suppliers, should bring "moderate upside in prices and returns in coming months".



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