Livestock farmers may recover more quickly from the recession than arable growers, a leading agricultural economist has said, forecasting an end to America's hog crisis.

The continuing low grain prices which represent a blow to cereal farmers are a boon to animal farmers, leaving pig producers on track for healthy profit margins by next summer, Purdue University economist Chris Hurt said.

US pig farmers who are currently suffering losses of about $15 an animal will see a $12-a-head profit next summer, equivalent to about 20% of the-then sales price, as livestock value recover while feed bills remain relatively static.

"Just as the world economic slowdown helped plunge the animal industries into recession more quickly than the crops sector, the world economic recovery may help lift the animal industries out of recession more quickly," Mr Hurt said.

Market squeeze 

He has estimated that a US pig farmer with a 10,000-strong herd will have lost about $400,000 by the time the sector's slump ends.

The sector was initially placed into difficulty in late 2007 by soaring grain costs, which sent feed prices soaring, with the global recession and swine flu then weakening demand for pork.

However, the market looks set for a squeeze as a recovery in consumers' appetite for pork, both in the US and abroad, coincides with a drop in domestic supplies fostered by herd cuts.

"Per capita pork production will be down about 3-4% in the coming nine months," Mr Hurt said.

"This, along with lower US retail pork prices, improving incomes, and improving consumer attitudes will provide the basis for strengthening hog prices."

Herd reductions

A quarterly US Department of Agriculture's hogs report showed farmers had made deeper-than-expected cuts in herd numbers.