22:43 UK, 6th September 2010, by Agrimoney.com
London wheat closes gap, as French crop upgraded

London feed wheat played catch up once again with its Paris milling wheat peer on Monday, as the French government followed neighbouring Germany in lifting opinions over its wheat crop.

Prices in both markets firmed, helped by Friday's strong finish in Chicago, where the best-traded December contract finished nearly 4% higher, lifted by hopes for the switch of exports from the former Soviet Union.

US financial markets are closed on Monday for the Labor Day holiday.

However, London wheat made particular headway, closed 2.8% higher at £165.00 a tonne for November delivery, the best close for a near-term lot in two years, while its Paris milling equivalent eased E0.25 to finish at E231.75 a tonne.

Better than expected 

London's outperformance came as France's farm ministry raised by 500,000 tonnes to 35.7m tonnes its estimate for the country's soft wheat harvest, the European Union's biggest, flagging higher yields than it had previously expected from a crop dogged by a dry spring.

French farm ministry crop forecasts, 2010-11, (year-on-year change)

Soft wheat: 35.69m tonnes, (-1.5%)

Barley: 10.28m tonnes, (-20%)

Durum: 2.46m tonnes, (+17.0%)

Maize: 13.75m tonnes, (-11.4%)

Total grains (includes others): 65.65m tonnes, (-6.5%)

The average yield was estimated at 7.24 tonnes per hectare, compared with a 7.11 tonnes-per-hectare figure last month.

France's upgrade followed an estimate on Friday by the German agriculture ministry that the key winter crop in the EU's second ranked – ranked wheat producer would hit 23.6m tonnes, above forecasts from some other observers.

Furthermore, Germany was relatively upbeat on crop quality too, reducing fears that considerable quantities of milling grain would not make the cut, concerns which had pressed on London's feed wheat prices.

Export surge 

However, traders also noted the relatively strong demand for UK wheat, with a load of 55,000-60,000 tonnes on its way to Thailand, and rumours of a further large vessel expected in Southampton later this month.

"July and August were pretty impressive [for exports], and it looks as it we will have a reasonable performance in September," a trader at a leading European commodities house told Agrimoney.com.

"When we have an exportable surplus of 800,000-1m tonnes, its not going to be too difficult to get rid of."

The trader added that the upgrade to the French crop was not surprising, given that the country had, despite earlier fears, had a "good harvest, from the early barley to the last spring beans coming in".

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