Macquarie cast a cloud over a revival in soybean prices by stating a "bearish view" on prospects, even as it revealed "a bullish expectation for corn prices", citing the impact of South American dynamics.

Soybean prices set course on Wednesday for their first gains in seven sessions in Chicago, adding 0.7% to $14.16 ˝ a bushel as of 07:00 local time (12:00 UK time) for May delivery, amid renewed talk of the tightness of supplies.

However, Macquarie, which has forecast futures falling to average $13.00 a bushel in the April-to-June period, said that South American crops, "will pressure prices from current levels".

"On a three-to-six month basis, we have a general bearish view on soybeans."

Export pick-up?

The forecast reflected an assessment that Brazil's ports - whose hold-ups have pushed importers back to the US - will prove able to meet world needs it estimated at 5.5m tonnes a month for soybeans and 1.5m tonnes for soymeal until August, when the world prepares for the American harvest.

Brazil's harvest - which Macquarie pegged at 81m tonnes, 2.5m tonnes below the US Department of Agriculture estimate –would this year prove more evenly spread geographically, allowing Brazil to make more use of the southern port of Rio Grande.

"One of the most important changes this season is the improvement in the soybean crop in Rio Grande do Sul," Macquarie analyst Chris Gadd said, estimating the state's harvest at 12m tonnes, nearly twice last season's drought-hit 6.5m-tonne result.

'Aggressive sellers'

Meanwhile, in Argentina, farmers will prove more willing than has been thought to sell soybeans, despite the appeal of hanging on to a dollar-denominated asset at a time of a depreciating peso.

"Through the use of silo bags the Argentine farmer may well have the physical ability to store all of their crop, but we believe the constraint is actually a financial one," Mr Gadd said.

"Of the major producing nations Argentine farmers are relatively poor at present - this stems from the combination of government price caps and low production over the last couple of seasons.

"We simply don't believe the Argentine farmer has the available credit to finance the storage of millions of tonnes of soybeans," Mr Gadd said, foreseeing that "come harvest they will be aggressive sellers of the crop from the combine".

'Significant threat to yield'

However, for corn, pressure on prices from the Argentine harvest looks like being less acute, given the degree of selling that farmers have already done.

Growers have sold ahead nearly 12m tonnes out of a crop Macquarie pegged at 24.9m tonnes.

Meanwhile, expectations of strong Brazilian corn exports from July, once the second or safrinha crop comes onstream, look misplaced given the competition with other crops for port capacity, and the prospect of disappointing production.

"A huge Brazilian Safrinha crop doesn't seem the certainty that it once was," Mr Gadd said, raising the late plantings in Mato Grosso as a "significant threat to yield", in increasing the chances of the crop pollinating during the height of the dry season.

The bank forecast the safrinha corn crop at 34.7m tonnes, down 10.1% year on year.

Range of estimates

The estimate for the Safrinha crop contrasts with a forecast of 40.0m tonnes earlier this week from Safras, the Brazilian consultancy, which pegged Brazil's total corn harvest at 77.34m tonnes.

Macquarie pegged the overall crop at 69.1m tonnes.

Separately on Wednesday, Lanworth trimmed its estimate for the crop by 500,000 tonnes to 76.4m tonnes.