Nearly one-quarter of Ukraine's winter grain crop is in poor condition, following a dry period that US officials have termed "alarmingly unfavourable".
About 85% of grain sown for harvest next year has sprouted, official regional data showed.
Of this, 24.2% was rated as being in poor condition.
The data confirms the difficult start for winter crops, following a dearth of rain particularly in southern and eastern Ukraine, which meant farmers sowing in many cases into dry ground.
"September conditions were unusually poor and certainly had a negative effect on winter-grain prospects," a US Department of Agriculture report said 10 days ago.
Warm spell coming
However, the data appear to imply the crop is in better shape than suggested by many forecasters, some of which have said 2010 wheat production could halve.
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Ukraine winter crops healthcheck
For grain: sprouted, 84.6%
In poor condition: 24.2%
For wheat: sprouted, 87%
In poor condition: 22.4%
In good condition: 35.9% |
UkrAgroConsult, the Kiev-based analysis group, which has been one of the more sanguine observers, on Monday restated a forecast that 10-15% of winter wheat plantings would need reseeding with spring crops next year.
"Farmers expect that after warming which is expected next week, shoots will sprout on the balance of the [planted] areas," UkrAgroConsult analyst Liza Malyshko told Agrimoney.com.
The regional data showed 87% of winter wheat had emerged so far, with 22.4% in poor condition.
Production slump
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Ukraine winter grain sowings (as of October 20)
Wheat: 5.99m hectares
Barley: 1.11m hectares
Rye: 290,000 hectares
Total: 7.4m hectares
Source: USDA |
The statistics also imply an improvement in winter grains since mid-October, when the proportion of the crop rated in poor condition was 27%, according to official statistics.
Four seasons ago, when plantings were also marred by a dry autumn, 30% of the crop was rated as being in poor health as of January 2007.
Ukraine wheat production fell by 25% to 14.0m tonnes between 2005-06 and 2006-07.
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