The "only likely direction is up" for orange juice prices, thanks to a cocktail of crop concerns which may drive Florida output below that in hurricane-damaged 2004-05, BNP Paribas Fortis has said.

The comments came as orange juice prices jumped 4.1% in New York to their highest since February last year.

While the rally took the commodity's gains this year to 95%, there may be further to come in 2010 as the markets mull disease and weather risks which many Florida growers believe could send 2009-10 production down to 122m boxes, the bank said.

That figure, 13m below current Washington forecasts, would represent a 25% slump year on year, and take output to its lowest for at least decade, underperforming even 2006-07, when Florida groves were damaged by frost at a time when they were still recovering from storm damage during the notorious 2004 hurricane season. 

Smaller fruits 

"We feel the US Department of Agriculture will be revising down [Florida production forecasts], little by little in the coming months," BNP Paribas Fortis said in a monthly report.

They also faced the "steady march onwards" of citrus greening, a fatal and incurable bacterial disease spread by insects.

"What with… nascent demand recovery on the back of a brighter economic outlook, it would appear that the only direction for the price is up from here," the report said.

Prices rise

A New York orange juice price of 150 cents a pound by the second quarter of 2010 seemed "quite feasible", a level which would be the highest for a near-term contract since December 2007.

Orange juice for January closed up 5.59 cents higher at 135.95 cents a pound in New York.

The better-traded March lot ended 5.70 cents higher at 139.95 cents a pound.