The great fertilizer consolidation drive is going to need some extra oomph if it is going to get very far. It has promised much. What, with CF Industries bidding for its US peer, Terra Industries, and Agrium approaching CF, let alone BHP Billiton's rumoured interest in Canada's PotashCorp.

But none of these deals has got far off the starting line. And investors don't seem to be betting on it making more progress any time soon, even after Agrium sweetened its CF terms - for a second time - on Monday.

Star sector

Sure, investors have been piling into fertilizer groups. Shares in the main US-listed nutrient operators are up an average of roughly one-third this year, compared with a slight fall in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

But that's only in part down to hopes for consolidation.

While CF and Terra shares have done especially well, each up by 50%, Mosaic has risen 31%. And Mosaic, thanks to majority ownership by Cargill, is pretty much takeover-proof.

Thumbs down

Indeed, digging deeper into CF and Terra shows that investors aren't at all confident of bids for either group getting very far.

If investors had liked Agrium's revised deal, they would have driven CF shares near to the value implied by the offer.  In fact, the immediate reaction was to widen to nearly 11% the discount between CF's shares and what Agrium is prepared to pay for them.

Investors are holding out even less hope of CF landing Terra. Terra shares have moved into a different orbit, trading at a whopping 18% discount to the value of CF's bid.

Too late

Predators such as Agrium appear to have missed their chance. At least, their opportunity for picking up targets in the post-crash sale - provided stocks do not once more head into the bargain basement.

A big part of Terra's and CF's bid defences rested on dismissing offers as too low.

Investors may be more inclined to believe them now that shares as a whole have recovered nearly all their 2009 losses, and some farm commodities have regained much of last year's too.