The rally in orange juice prices may have a further 50% to run as economic revival whets demand at a time when frost, disease and grove clearance have dented Florida's output, Fortis Bank Nederland has said.

Juice prices, which have already doubled over the last year, could be poised to rise to $2 a pound for the first time since March 2007, the bank said, noting the "radical" transformation in the market's outlook since the depths of the recession.

It already looked like output in Florida, which produces three quarter of America's oranges, would be "historically low", even before potential damage from summer storms is factored in.

"The Atlantic hurricane season late this year is unlikely to be as quiet as that of 2009," Fortis said.

Meanwhile, US economic revival "may see juice demand regain much of the ground it lost during the recession".

"A rise of $2 a pound by the second half of 2010 looks increasingly possible," the bank said.

Juice for March delivery closed in New York on Tuesday at $1.3885 a pound, with the July lot ending at $1.4565 a pound.

Cocktail of challenges 

Florida's orange production looked set for a steep fall even before the winter, with farmers impatient at low prices ripping out groves, and citrus greening disease, a fatal and incurable bacterial infection, threatening remaining trees.

"Given that fruit sizes on the tree were already causing some concern before the latest frost damage, growers in Florida are beginning to talk in terms of a final tally as low as 122m boxes," Fortis said.

Currently the US Department of Agriculture – which has yet to factor in damage from Florida's frost – is forecasting American orange juice production down 19.2% at 615,000 tonnes, noting in a report last week that there was "less fruit available to process".

One tonne of concentrated juice is equivalent to about 1,400 gallons of consumer product.

Brazil is the world's biggest juice producer, with output expected at 1.31m tonnes in 2009-10.