Production recovery?

Mr Putin's comments followed an assessment from Russia's farm minister, Yelena Skrynnik, that the country was on course for a strong rebound in grain production next year, to 85m-90m tonnes,  although a figure well below 2008 and 2009 highs.

"We believe that this target can be reached," she said, forecasting that winter grains would be sown on 18m hectares, with spring grain plantings hitting 30m hectares.

"So, if we sow 50m [hectares], we will get 80m tonnes."

However, there are some doubts that the winter grains sowings target will be met, even though rains have reached many drought-hit areas since Viktor Zubkov, Russia's deputy prime minister, forecast last month that such plantings would fall to 12m tonnes.

Exporters to turn importers?

The removal of Russia, the third biggest wheat shipping country in 2009-10, from the export market for prolonged period is likely to increase the demand for supplies the US - the one major wheat trading nation to enjoy a bumper harvest.

Official data on Thursday showed US weekly export sales at 1.02m tonnes, marginally down on last week's figure, but ahead of trade expectations of about 700,000-900,000 tonnes.

"The shortage of wheat in some traditional exporting countries – Russia will probably also be dependent on wheat imports – should lead to a further reduction in high US wheat stocks and therefore support prices," Commerzbank said on Thursday, flagging a likely turnaround in Germany's trade fortunes too.

Germany, the European Union's second ranked wheat producer, "could be reliant on wheat imports to a large degree this year" for the first time in a decade, the bank said, noting Tuesday's reports that a German miller had turned to the US for 20,000 tonnes of high protein US spring wheat.

Besides a reduction of 9% in output, some 1m tonnes of milling wheat is likely to be downgraded to feed, the Germany's VDM millers' association believes.

Ukraine shipments