A revival in piglet prices to a three-year high signals that Europe's latest pig-farming downturn, reflected in a 27% slump in exports this year, is near an end, a US briefing has said.

Piglet output, which sank by 11m animals to a nine-year low of 254m between 2007 and 2009, will bounce by about 2m animals next year, a report from US government attaché Bob Flach said.

The recovery will be driven by Poland, where piglet production plunged 20% to 5.5m head in 2008, and Denmark which are enjoying rising exports to Russia.

Russian imports from European Union countries of pigs for slaughter tripled to 75,000 head per month between 2007 and this year, the briefing said.

The prospect of a revival was already being reflected in piglet prices, which, in the Netherlands, doubled to E50 apiece on farm between late 2007 and a spring 2009 high.

"The high piglet prices are an indication that the swine cycle will bottom out in 2010," Mr Flach said.

Pork chopped

However, pork production would not remain on the slide, dipping 100,000 tonnes to just under 22m tonnes, as farmers rebuilt stocks.

"In none of the EU member states [is] a significant production recovery anticipated," Mr Flach said

Furthermore, export demand remained weak, with foreign shipments, on course to fall from a record 1.72m tonnes last year to 1.25m in 2009, declining a further 50,000 tonnes in 2010.

"A major upturn... of pork production is impeded by the financial crisis which deteriorated demand from export markets," the briefing said.