PRINTABLE VERSION   EMAIL TO A FRIEND   RSS FEEDS 09:22 UK, 16th Mar 2010, by Agrimoney.com
Potash inventories slump by 20% in a month

Potash stocks held by North American producers have tumbled to below their five-year average for the first time since 2008, in another sign of the sector's recovery from its 2009 slump.

Inventories held by world's biggest producers of the nutrient slid by more than 20% in February, their fourth successive month of decline, data from sector giant PotashCorp showed.

The drop left stocks at a little over 2m tonnes, 16% below their average for the previous five years.

Inventories had not fallen below the average since November 2008, as farmers began to hack fertilizer budgets in the face of falling crop markets and tighter credit, with potash suffering in particular thanks to its relatively high price.

Stocks spent much of last year at more than twice average levels, until the mothballing of half the world's potash mining capacity, and some improvement in demand as prices fell, took them into decline last autumn.

Price movements 

Potash prices held at a $350 a tonne last month for buyers loading in Vancouver, excluding freight charges.

Change in N American producers' potash stocks (diff to 5-yr ave)

Feb 2010: -556,208 tonnes (-16%)

Jan 2010: -552,000 tonnes (+6%)

Dec 2009: -422,000 tonnes (+45%)

Nov 2009: -146,000 tonnes (+89%)

Oct 2009: +165,000 tonnes (+129%)

Source: PotashCorp

While lower than the near-$900 a tonne reached in 2008, the price is twice that the nutrient garnered for the first half of the 2000s, until the farm commodities boom sent the prices of many farm inputs soaring.

And the data follows other signs of sector revival this year, with American producer Intrepid Potash bringing mothballed capacity back onstream, Germany's K+S announcing a pick-up in interest and PotashCorp last week raising its earnings target, after a string of profits warnings last year.

Inventories of all three major fertilizers are now below their five year averages, with nitrogen and phosphate exhibiting strong price rebounds, the briefing showed.

RELATED ARTICLES
PotashCorp lifts earnings hopes as US sales soar
World potash sales to jump 50% this year, says K+S
Intrepid reopens mine capacity as potash revives
Potash giants agree 20% price cut with India