Australia's wheat shipments may not, despite a bumper harvest, benefit as much as some observers expect from the withdrawal of Russia from grain exports, analysts at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group said.

The bank said that Australia's wheat production could top 24m tonnes, higher than the 22m-23m tonne estimates of other observers, after recent rains which were "supportive of high yields and production" for East Coast growers.

The biggest threat to such a harvest, which would be among Australia's best ever, was the dryness in Western Australia, the top grain-producing state, where "without rain, some crops will fail in coming weeks", ANZ said.

However, even if the crop does meet high expectations, exports will reach only 16m tonnes, a figure oft beaten in the past, because of infrastructure limitations on Australia's east coast.

The forecast comes the day after AWB trumpeted the prospects for Australian wheat exports, which the grain handler said looked set to benefit from both quantity and quality issues in other producing countries.

It also represent a fillip to other exporters, such as the European Union and the US, which look set to benefit from weaker shipments from the former Soviet Union. 

'Fair bit of pressure' 

"We question the ability of bulk exports to rebound strongly, given the decline in upcountry [transport] capacity plus potential co-ordination issues with multiple exporters post deregulation," ANZ said.

Meanwhile, the removal of AWB's monopoly over Australia's wheat exports has been blamed for leading to shipping hold-ups as a plethora of new handlers compete for port capacity.

The last time East Coast ports dealt with wheat shipments at the levels of about 6m tonnes expected in 2010-11 was nine years ago, when AWB still had sole control.

"Australian wheat exports are unlikely to be a significant contributor in 2010-11 in filling the void from the Russian export ban," ANZ said.

Crop failure warning

Instead, the country was likely to be left with large stocks which, in the eastern states alone, would hit a five-year high of 5.0m tonnes, the bank said.

Most of the state's wheat belt had missed out on the recent rains and, with no significant rainfall expected in the region over the next week, some areas looked like going without notable moisture in a month.

"This is getting to the point where, without rain, some crops will fail in coming weeks," ANZ said.