PRINTABLE VERSION   EMAIL TO A FRIEND   RSS FEEDS 21:58 UK, 10th May 2012, by Agrimoney.com
Record US corn crop to fuel jump in world stocks

World corn stocks are to recover to their highest level in 12 years, supported by a record harvest in the US, where inventories will more than double and prices fall by roughly one-quarter.

The US Department of Agriculture, in its first crop forecasts for 2012-13, outlined a huge recovery in world corn supplies from the constrained levels of this season which have sent prices soaring, lifting values of other grains, such as wheat, too as users scramble for alternatives.

While investors had braced for a rebound in supplies, after a report in March revealed US farmers were planning their biggest corn sowings in 75 years, the extent of the revival exceeded most expectations.

The USDA, whose estimates are taken as world benchmarks, foresaw the domestic corn crop soaring to an all-time high of 14.8bn bushels (375.7m tonnes), enabling inventories at the close of 2012-13 to recover to 1.88bn bushels (47.8m tonnes).

The market had expected a 1.71bn-bushel inventory figure.

The US performance will help world stocks rebuild to 152.3m tonnes, their highest since 2000-01, and more than 15m tonnes above the figure that analysts had expected.

'Rapid pace of planting'

The US inventory data reflected expectations of US growers achieving, besides large sowings, a record yield of 166.0 bushels per acre this year, a figure 2.0 bushels per acre higher than the USDA's initial estimate.

Wasde corn estimates, change on year and (on market forecasts)

2011-12 - US end stocks: 851m bushels, -277m bushels, (+102m bushels)

World end stocks: 127.56m tonnes, +3.13m tonnes, (+5.6m tonnes)

2012-13 - US end stocks: 1.881bn bushels, +1.030bn bushels, (+167m bushels)

World end stocks: 152.34m tonnes, +24.78m tonnes, (+15.54m tonnes)

Sources: USDA, ThomsonReuters poll
The upgrade factored in "the rapid pace of planting and emergence", Karis Gutter, acting US secretary of agriculture, said.

Furthermore, US corn exports, while seen rising 200m bushels in 2012-13, will be limited by "record foreign corn supplies", Mr Gutter said.

Ukraine's crop was pegged at a record 24.0m tonnes, with Argentina's forecast rebounding by 3.5m tonnes to 25.0m tonnes.

'Something wrong with that number'

The extra supplies were seen curtailing price prospects, with US farmers seen receiving $4.20-5.00 a bushel for this year's corn, a figure Mr Gutter acknowledged was "down sharply" from the $5.95-6.25 a bushel they are set to receive for last year's crop.

At Teucrium Trading, Sal Gilbertie said: "This is a very significant decrease. The entire US farm economy is going to have to adapt quickly back to lower prices for corn."

Furthermore, the US stocks figure might, even at 1.8bn bushels, still prove an underestimate, given that it includes a 900m-bushel increase in feed and residual use, reversing a four-year downward trend.

"There is something wrong with that number. It is almost going back to the days before distillers' grains," the byproduct of ethanol manufacture used as an alternative to corn in animal feed.

Price reaction

In Chicago, corn for July plunged 3.3% to $5.87 ½ a bushel in early live deals in Chicago.

The new crop December contract touched $5.05 a bushel at one point, its lowest since February last year, before closing at $5.07 ¼ a bushel, down 1.8% on the day.

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