A revolution which has doubled India's cotton production in less than a decade is poised to come to an end, questioning the country's new-found status as one of the world's biggest exporters.

A step change in yields brought by the adoption of genetically modified cotton has only "limited" further mileage, a report the US Department of Agriculture's New Delhi office said.

With further productivity improvements requiring instead "significant investment" in irrigation, pest control and fertilizers, observers have begun to doubt the sustainability of a transformation which has been compared with the so-called green revolution in cereal crops in the 1960s.

While the Indian government has targeted production of 28.1m bales in 2010-11, "some industry sources expect India's cotton production to peak at 26.5m bales in the next two-to-three years", the briefing said.

Domestic consumption boom 

A slowdown in output growth would raise questions over India's ability to maintain the trend which has, in five years, turned it from a net importer of cotton to the world's second-biggest exporter, after the US.

"Industry sources report that the domestic economic can support growth of 5-7% per annum in cotton consumption over the next few years," the report said.

Such hopes come despite the growing use of man-made fibres, which could limit to 55-56% cotton's shares of total fibre use by textile groups, from 60% in 2006.

Record harvest 

Nonetheless, in 2010-11, domestic use looked set to expand slower than production, which was expected to hit a record 25.0m bales.

The 6.4% increase in output would be driven by improved yields, after last year's crop was held back by the weak monsoon, which delayed plantings.

Cotton stood 0.4% lower at 79.71 cents a pound in New York on Monday.

A rally which doubled prices in the year to early March, as economic recovery boosted consumption for cotton, has stalled over the last month amid expectations of farmers increasing sowings, notably in the US.