PRINTABLE VERSION   EMAIL TO A FRIEND   RSS FEEDS 18:29 UK, 19th Apr 2010, by Agrimoney.com
Rise in Danish winterkill stokes regional fears

The cold winter has cost Denmark 10% of its autumn-sown wheat, stoking speculation of increased losses in much of northern Europe which have yet to appear in analysts' estimates.

"The harshest winter in years killed off around 10% of winter wheat," LandbrugsAvisen, the Danish weekly farming magazine said, quoting data from consultancy Landscentret Planteproduktion.

The reports follow persistent market rumours of high winterkill rates in Denmark, where many farmers have been lured by a succession of milder winters into planting higher yielding, but less hardy, varieties.

And many observers believe that the country's experience may reflect a regional trend, with Hugh Schryver, at Glencore's UK grain arm, on Friday reporting concerns of winterkill in "Denmark and other northern EU states".

Under-reported?

Such losses may yet to be picked up by analysts, he added, noting that Strategie Grains last week lifted, rather than reduced, its forecast for EU wheat production this year.

Europe's top soft wheat producers, by yield, 2009

1: Netherlands, 9.6 tonnes per hectare

2: Belgium, 9.0 tonnes per hectare

3: Ireland, 8.8 tonnes per hectare

4: Denmark, 8.1 tonnes per hectare

5: UK, 7.9 tonnes per hectare

Source: Coceral

"No significant cuts in production were included in the report because of the extent of the [winterkill] problem will not be fully apparent for a few more weeks," he said.

Denmark, while being one of the European Union's smaller countries, has historically punched above its weight in wheat thanks to among the region's highest yields, which last averaged more than 8 tonnes a hectare, taking the harvest to nearly 6m tonnes.

Its exports are often cited by traders as a threat to UK prices, including last month when an apparently more aggressive stance by Danish merchants was attributed to a desire to empty pipelines before the next harvest.

Market prices

Wheat prices in Copenhagen rose to about DKr775 ($145) a tonne in Copenhagen, their highest since mid-February.

The grain fell on other markets, weakened by the fallout from the fraud charges against Goldman Sachs and good spring planting weather.

Wheat for May delivery closed down E1.50 at E128.00 a tonne in Paris, and by £0.60 to £98.40 a tonne in London. 

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