11:19 UK, 19th March 2010, by Agrimoney.com
'Robust' US crop exports to lead rural revival

"Robust" crop exports are to lead America's countryside communities to an economic recovery faster than that enjoyed in cities, the Federal Reserve has said.

Rural districts have a habit of rebounding from recessions more quickly than their urban peers, on measures such as employment and per capita income.

The trend is particularly strong in so-called jobless recoveries, the type that the current revival looks like turning into, with US economic growth forecast at 2.5-3.5% this year, compared with an average rate of 5.1% in years following recessions.

Agriculture, and countryside factories, may again set the pace for the rural rebound this year, as global economic recovery and a weaker dollar help farm exports, Federal Reserve executive Jason Henderson said.

'Higher farm commodity prices'

"Stronger export activity will be crucial to the rebound... in rural prosperity," Mr Henderson said.

"Robust export activity is expected to support higher agricultural commodity prices this year.

"Moreover, world grain inventories remain near historical lows, with stocks-to-use ratios of roughly 20%. Tight inventories will underpin farm level prices."

Tricky year 

The comments follow a year in which farm commodity exports dropped at a pace of 20%, with dairy shipments slumping by 45%.

Revenues to crop growers fell by 10.5%, while milk prices fell by 30%.

Weaker farm profits fed through into a 22% slide in sales of four-wheel drive tractors, and rise to 2.5% in borrowers getting into arrears on farm loan repayments.

The value of total farm real estate assets fell by 3.5% and, with borrowings rising, the sector's debt-to-asset ratio returned to a 10-year average of 12.3%.

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