US foreign staff have left their forecast for Brazil's corn production unchanged, ending a run of upward revisions by analysts to their forecasts for South American crop production.
South America's biggest corn producer will harvest 51.0m tonnes of the grain in 2009-10, US Department of Agriculture officials in Brasilia said, the same forecast they made in October.
The report follows a rash of upgrades to South American corn and soybean crop estimates. Informa Economics on Wednesday raised its forecast for Brazil's corn production by 600,000 tonnes to 53.3m tonnes.
It also comes on the eve of the USDA's latest monthly global crop supply and demand forecasts, much-watched data which analysts expect to show higher estimates for South American corn production.
The USDA's official figure currently pegs Brazilian corn output at 51.0m tonnes.
Huge yield
The report from Brasilia backed farmers' expectations of a bumper harvest of summer corn, which was "progressing well", thanks to benign weather, greater use of genetically modified varieties and a greater use of fertilizers and herbicides, whose costs have fallen by 30% year on year,
Yields in Parana, Brazil's top corn-producing state, would hit a record 7.05 tonnes per hectare, equivalent to nearly 105 bushels per acre.
The country's average yield would hit 3.90 tonnes per hectare, or 58 bushels per acre, greater than the 44.0 bushels per acre achieved by US farmers.
Safarinha factor
However, Brazil's winter, or safarinha, crop - which accounts for about one-third of production - would show little change from last year's, the US officials said, factoring in an average yield for drought-prone Mato Grosso state rather than the bumper ones harvested last year.
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Brazil's corn dynamics, 2009-10 (year-on-year change)
Area harvested: 13.3m hectares (-5.7%)
Production: 51.0m tonnes (unchanged)
Exports: 8.5m tonnes (+11.8%)
Domestic consumtion: 45.5m tonnes (+2.2%)
Year-end stocks: 9.96m tonnes (-20%)
Source: USDA attache report |
"Winter corn yields tend to be lower than summer corn yields due to shorter-season varieties with lower yield potential coupled with greater weather risks at the end of the growing season," the briefing said.
Their report also highlighted disappointment among farmers at corn markets, which have been dented worldwide over the last month by raised production prospects.
"Early indications from the Parana State Agricultural Statistics Agency signal a slight decrease in planting intentions due to sluggish corn prices."
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