Russian farm officials have denied mounting speculation that they are seeking to restrict grain exports, after a warning from analysts of a "high chance" of the world's third-biggest shipper of wheat curtailing shipments.

The country's agriculture ministry said that it had "not sent any grain export restrictions proposals to the government".

The statement followed a note from local broker Renaissance Capital which crystallised market fears that Russia, which exported about 17.5m tonnes of wheat alone in 2009-10, was about to curtail shipments in the face of the worst drought in 130 years.

Agrimoney.com last week urged the government to come clean on its intentions for grain exports.

Separately, both analysis group SovEcon and the Russian Grain Union, an influential lobby group, cut their estimates for the country's grain harvest. SovEcon placed a potential 30% cut from last year's 97m tonnes on the cards.

'Minor shipments' 

Renaissance Capital analyst Natasha Zagvozdina said it that it was "unlikely that there will be any exports this year, or if so they will be very minor", estimating a "high chance" of the government introducing restrictions, as it had done in the past.

Russia in 2008 imposed hefty export tariffs which virtually eliminated shipments until it was removed in July.

However, the future of Russian exports was asserted by Arkady Zlochevsky, the president of the Russian Grain Union, who said that "of course" there would be shipments. "The question is how much."

"It would be a shame to lose that position" in the world market built up through months of courting leading buyers, including Egypt, the world's top wheat importer, which in 2009-10 bought more wheat from Russia than any other exporter.

Mr Zlochevsky, who two weeks ago estimated domestic grain consumption at 77m tonnes, said on Tuesday that the figure may actually come in at 71m-72m tonnes.

'Crazy day' 

The ministry's statement took some of the heat in a wheat rally which drove Chicago's September contract back over $6 a bushel at one point.

Paris wheat for November hit E184.25 a tonne, the highest for a nearest-but-one contract since September 2008 before easing to close at E177.50 a tonne, up 1.6% on the day. London wheat finished 1.7% higher at £133.20 a tonne.

"It has just been a crazy day, and very difficult to know where it will go tomorrow," Jonathan Lane at Gleadell, the UK grain merchant, said.