Russia's farm ministry has made an uncharacteristically upbeat start to its grains forecastingcampaign, pegging the 2010 harvest at 95m tonnes.

The forecast from Sergey Korolev, deputy agriculture minister, is some 2m tonnes short of last year's harvest, which was considered a robust crop.

However, it is considerably more than the 85m-tonne figure the ministry has stood by in recent seasons until most of the crop is safely in silos, even in 2008 as production jumped towards 108m tonnes.

Indeed, Mr Korolev's estimate is, unusually for this time of season, in line with forecasts from analysis groups such as SovEcon.

It is even more upbeat that estimates from figures such as Sergey Levin, boss at the state grain trading company, and Arcadiy Zlochevskiy, the head of Russian Grain Union, who have predicted a harvest of "in excess of" 90m tonnes.

Port development

Mr Korolev added that Russia is to spend $50-100m on expanding ports in its far east to improve access to Asian markets, and support grain exports he forecast falling 1m tonnes to 22m tonnes this year.

"We want to be a reliable and stable supplier of high-quality grain on a long-term basis," he told a grains conference in Singapore.

The comments come amid a campaign by Russia to raise grain output and develop ties with exporters, and follow talks for a deal for shipments to Egypt, the world's biggest wheat importer.

Deputy Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov said earlier this month that Russia should be able to harvest nearly 140m tonnes of grains a year, based on an assessment that grain supplies in developed countries typically amount to about 1 tonne per head.

However, export infrastructure has strained under the weight of trade volumes, which also stand to be swollen by an agreement with Russia to ease access of grain from Kazakhstan.

"Black Sea ports are struggling to keep up with loadings and a back log of ships is awaiting wheat shipments from the country," Kevin Kjorsvik at US broker Benson Quinn Commodities said.