Improving crop prospects have put Russia on course for record wheat exports, the International Grains Council has said, in a report adding 2m tonnes to its forecast for global production.

The council, an intergovernmental body, said that Russian shipments would hit 18.6m tonnes in 2009-10, a rise of 400,000 tonnes year on year.

The figure represents a 1.6m-tonne increase on the IGC's previous forecast, but puts the organisation in line with the US Department of Agriculture.

While the council failed to elaborate on the thinking behind the increase, the revision follows reports of dry weather hurting crops along the Volga river, but of higher yields elsewhere.

Mixed fortunes 

The council estimated total global wheat production at 654m tonnes, shy of its previous estimate and the USDA's current forecast of 656m tonnes.

"Prospects have improved in Russia, the US, China and Morocco, but forecasts for the European Union, Canada and Argentina are lowered," the IGC said.

However, consumption would no longer set a fresh record, the IGC said, cutting its forecast by 2m tonnes to 642m tonnes, 1m tonnes below the 2008-09 peak, thanks in part to rising competition from corn as a livestock feed.

World stocks would end 2009-10 at 174m, the highest for eight years, with much of the 13m year-on-year increase "due to a rebound in China", the council said.