Russia's farm ministry poured more cold water on hopes that Russia would break its export ban sooner than the end-of-December deadline, implying that the curbs may extend well into 2011.

The farm ministry said that the country's total grain shipments, which topped 20m tonnes last year, would slump to 2.0m-4.5m tonnes in 2010-11.

The figure puts a lower floor on export hopes that those of other analysts, with Strategie Grains on Thursday reducing its estimate for Russian wheat shipments alone to 2.1m tonnes, with the US Department of Agriculture cutting its forecast to 3.0m tonnes.

However, with the ministry noting that Russia may already have shipped as much as 2.8m tonnes so far in the 2010-11 crop year, which began at the start of the month, the forecast implied that the ban on shipments may last until at least June next year.

 'Extreme situation'

The comments, which assumed a grain harvest of 60m-65m tonnes, compared with 97m tonnes last year, appears to extend the line drawn earlier this week by Vladimir Putin, the Russian prime minister.

Mr Putin said that while the country would review its export curbs after the harvest, buyers anticipating the lifting of restrictions on December 31 were "waiting in vain".

However, separately, Dmitry Medvedev, the Russian president, on Thursday told farmers and traders that the ban could be lifted before its December 31 deadline, depending on the harvest result.

"The situation in many regions is extreme," he added, noting that crops had been lost on up to one quarter of the grain area sown – implying a figure of some 11m tonnes.

"Unfortunately, many farmers are on the verge of bankruptcy because of crop losses."

Trade gains

Analysts are scrambling to assess which producers will pick up exports lost by Russia, the world's third-biggest wheat exporting country last year, and by neighbours Kazakhstan and Ukraine, which have also been hit by poor weather

Customs officials in Ukraine, the world's top barley shipper, on Thursday confirmed that they had blocked the export of 28,500 tonnes of wheat, blaming incorrect paperwork.

Strategie Grains said that America was placed to pick-up the lion's share of lost trade, lifting its forecast for US soft wheat exports by nearly 6m tonnes to 33.6m tonnes.

At that level, they would exceed last year's by 9.7m tonnes, and be among the higher levels of the last two decades.

The USDA itself raised its estimate for American all-wheat exports by 5.4m tonnes to 32.7m tonnes, adding that Australia, China and Europe were also placed to pick up trade.

European victory

Indeed, Jordan revealed that it had bought 100,000 tonnes of German wheat, at an average price of $323.75 a tonne including freight.

The order came the day after French grain achieved its second grand slam in a week at a tender by Egypt, the world's biggest wheat importer, supplying all 120,000 tonnes purchased, at $285.97 a tonne excluding freight, equivalent to about E222 a tonne.

"This price level... confirms the good performance of cash prices despite low prices on Euronext," Paris-based consultancy Agritel said.