Official estimates for Russian winter grain sowings look "optimistic", SovEcon has said, after data revealed farmers' planting campaign running at less than half the pace of last year's.

Russia's growers had planted 3.5m hectares of winter grains by September 8, less than the - revised estimate of - 7.3m hectares planted at the same time a year before, farm ministry data revealed.

In some areas, progress had slowed to a crawl as, while temperatures had cooled, rains had been insufficient to recharge soils dried out by Russia's worst drought on record.

Farmers in Saratov had sown 127,800 hectares, 13.3% of the area seeded a year before, while plantings in Volgograd, also in the Volga valley, had reached only 76,300 hectares, less than 12% of the comparable figure for 2009.

'Optimum window passed' 

The slow start meant that Russia looked "unlikely" to meet the winter sowings estimate of 16m-17m tonnes outlined on Thursday by Sergei Korolyov, Russia's deputy agriculture minister – and a target in line with last year's plantings.

"That looks optimistic," Andrey Sizov, the managing director of Moscow-based SovEcon, told Agrimoney.com.

While the analysis group, which has been at the forefront of monitoring the impact of Russia's drought on crops, had yet to form its own estimates, winter grain plantings were "likely to be a lot lower" than the official estimate.

"The optimum planting window has already passed for some regions," Mr Sizov added, noting that in much of the Volga valley, winter sowings are typically completed in early September.

Growers in regions with harsh winters favour sowing crops early to ensure they are in sufficiently robust condition to survive extensive cold.

Production rebound?

Although farmers failing to plant now still have the option to sow spring grains, yields for these crops are typically lower than their winter-planted counterparts, by about 15-20%.

Indeed, the progress of Russia's winter sowings is being keenly watched by international investors as a signal of the hangover that this year's drought will cause to 2011 production.

The country's agriculture minister, Yelena Skrynnik, has forecast grain production may rebound by up to one-half to 85m-90m tonnes in 2011, leaving it only some 10% short of the bumper 2008 crop.

The farm ministry data added that farmers had by September 8 harvested 47m tonnes of grain by bunker weight, which is typically 7-8% higher than the more widely-used clean weight.

This production figure was 34% less than a year before.

The average yield was, at 1.98 tonnes per hectare, down 21% year on year.