The strong yields reported from Russia's early grain harvest will not be repeated further north, SovEcon analysts have said, warning that drought may cut production by up to 17m tonnes, and questions plans to maintain exports.

The influential analysis group slashed to 82m-86m tonnes, from 84m-89m tonnes, its forecast for the grain crop in the world's second-ranked exporter, with Canada, of wheat.

And it warned that it may cut its forecast further, to 80m tonnes, if the "extreme heat" and dearth of rainfall which has dogged the Volga valley and some central regions persists.

That figure compares with a harvest of 97m tonnes of grain last year and, if realised, would mean a reduction equivalent to wheat output in neighbouring Ukraine.

Series of downgrades 

The revisions are the latest in a series of downgrades for the Russian crop, following a heatwave which forecasters say is longest since 1981, and which has kept temperatures above 30 degrees Celsius (86 degree Fahrenheit) in many regions.

The farm ministry a month ago slashed its forecast from 97m tonnes to 88m-90m tonnes.

US Department of Agriculture staff in Moscow earlier this week cut their estimate by 3m tonnes to 92m tonnes, noting promising reports from the barley harvest in southern regions, where farmers have sent out their combines a week earlier than normal.

However, "high grain yields in the southern Krasnodar and Stavropol regions at the start of the campaign do not promise a bumper crop", SovEcon said.

"Yields will start falling when the harvesting moves northwards and north-eastwards… If the heat persists, part of the crop, mainly spring barley and wheat, may be lost."

Impact on exports

The weaker harvest may also dent plans by Russia to maintain its high level of exports, which have grown enormously over the last decade, taking market share from, in the main, the US, and depressing prices worldwide.

While Russia has built up strong inventories, after strong harvests for the past two years, it uses some 77m tonnes of grain itself a year, a figure which is expected to increase as it pursues a drive to ramp up domestic chicken and pork production.

"Russia will most probably have to revise its plans to export more than 20m tonnes of grain this year and postpone plans to subsidise exports," SovEcon said.