The slump in wheat prices may have played out in Russia, a leading Moscow analyst has said, despite raising its harvest forecast thanks to better-than-expected crops in Siberia and the Urals.

"We feel that we are somewhere near the seasonal price bottom," Mr  Andrey Sizov  Jr, managing director of Sovecon, told Agrimoney.com.

While Russia's grain harvest looked set to beat even an upgraded agriculture ministry forecast, prices would be supported by intervention buying set to start later this month.

Export prices had already risen, with Egypt's latest 150,000-tonne purchase of Russian grain priced at $170 a tonne, $4 a tonne higher than an order two weeks before.

"That's good news for world prices, as well as Russia's," Mr  Sizov said.

Sovecon's milling wheat, fourth grade, price index steadied at 2,375 roubles a tonne last week, after falling 38% from its mid-June peak. The index for fourth grade milling wheat, the export benchmark, was 33% lower at 3,575 roubles a tonne.

Helpful weather

The comments came as the group edged its forecast for Russia's wheat crop higher to 60m-61m tonnes, pegging the harvest up to 4.5m tonnes bigger than US Department of Agriculture forecasts.

Sovecon said its revision, which would make Russia a bigger wheat producer than the US, reflected dry weather in Siberia and the Urals, which had allowed a relatively trouble-free harvest.

The group raised its forecast for Russia's total grain crop to 96.0m-97.5m tonnes, from 95.0m-97.0m tonnes.

The forecast is well above the latest farm ministry estimate of 90.0m tonnes, although in line with projections by Russia's deputy prime minister, Viktor Zubkov, who has forecast a range of 95.0m-97.0m tonnes.

As of October 6, Russia's farmers had harvested 93m tonnes of grain, including 59m tonnes of wheat, by bunker weight from about 85% of the sown area.

The drying and cleaning process used in taking the crop to its more-broadly-used clean weight typically cuts tonnages by about 7-8%.