Russia's winter grain plantings are to hit their highest for 16 years – but that doesn't mean that next year's harvest will show an improvement, a leading analysis group has said.

Sowings will come in at about 18m hectares, some 400,000 hectares higher than in 2008, Moscow-based consultancy Sovecon said.

The increase reflects a shift in the important Volga region away from spring plantings which, while avoiding the risk of winterkill, tend to be more vulnerable to stress from a lack of moisture.

"Farmers are trying to protect themselves from a repeat of this year, when the Volga region was badly damaged by drought," Sovecon managing director Andrey Sizov told Agrimoney.com.

Lower yields? 

However, while this would normally imply a rise in grain production, given that winter crops tend to yield more than spring-sown grains, it is too early yet to forecast a bumper 2010 harvest, Mr Sizov added.

"That may imply we have some weather problems next year," he said.

Furthermore, low grain prices appear to be prompting farmers to scrimp on fertilizer use once again.

"We are almost sure we can say inputs are lower this season. Farmers are spending less on fertilizers."