The heatwave which threatens to send Russia's grain production tumbling by 17m tonnes this year may spare the neighbouring Black Sea states, the head of analysis group SovEcon has said.

Benign conditions in Siberia, one of the few parts of Russia to avoid prolonged temperatures above 30 degrees Celsius, signal better crop weather in Kazakhstan, the smallest of the three so-called Black Sea grain exporters.

"Kazakhstan has a similar climate to western Siberia," Andrey Sizov, SovEcon's managing director, told Agrimoney.

"While it is still early in the season, my guess is that the heatwave will not reach Kazakhstan."

Spring vs winter sowings

Ukraine may also avoid significant losses, given its position nearer Russia's Caucasus areas of Krasnodar and Stavropol, where crops have avoided the hot weather, which has affected mainly central districts.

Furthermore, Ukrainian famers sow in the main winter grains, rather than the spring crops which have suffered particularly badly in Russia.

"Ukraine is doing better than Russia," Mr Sizov said.

Early harvest 

The comments followed SovEcon's cut to 82m-86m tonnes, from 84m-89m tonnes, its forecast for Russia's grain harvest this year, with a warning that the figure could drop to 80m tonnes if the heatwave persists.

The early harvesting being reported in Russia was a sign of drought damaged, rather than advanced, crops, Mr Sizov added.

"Farmers are afraid that they will lose their crop, that drought will make the grain drop, and they will not be able harvest it later," he said.

A shock to Russia's grain crop would be the second this month to world production, after the Canadian Wheat Board warned that wheat sowings in Canada's agricultural heartland would fall to their lowest for 39 years, thanks to a sodden spring.

Canada is the world's second-ranked wheat exporting country, narrowly ahead of Russia, according to US estimates.