Russia's famously dour farm ministry has for the second time in nine days raised its estimate of the country's grain crop – and even then remains below most industry estimates.
Farm Minister Yelena Skrynnik, who gave way last week on her longstanding insistence of an 85m-tonne crop, lifting her estimate to 90m tonnes, said on Friday it might do even better.
"We may harvest up to 93m tonnes," Ms Skrynnik told an agricultural forum.
Even a forecast at that level is adrift of estimates from analysis groups such as Moscow-based Sovecon, which this week edged its forecast higher to 96.0m-97.5m tonnes after dry weather protected late harvests in Siberia and the Urals.
Ms Skrynnik's government colleague Viktor Zubkov, Russia's deputy prime minister, has pegged the crop at 95.0m-97.0m tonnes.
'World of its own'
Russia, which is attempting to raise its profile as a grain superpower, produces a range of "official" harvest estimates, with prime ministers and presidents often chipping in.
President Dmitry Medvedev on Thursday said the this year's harvest would come in above 90m tonnes.
However, its farm ministry has a reputation for low estimates, with one Russian grain expert telling Agrimoney.com that the department was "in a world of its own".
Last year, the farm ministry stuck for most of the summer by a forecast of 85m tonnes for a harvest which ended up at 108m tonnes.
Intervention countdown
The statement comes the day after Ms Skrynnik confirmed that the government was close to beginning its long-awaited programme of intervention grain purchases.
"They will start within the next 10 days," she said, according to the Ria-Novosty news agency.
She is also reported as saying that the government is to set aside 2.8bn roubles ($94.0m) to buy 300,000 tonnes of Russian dairy produce from next spring, with a further 300m roubles allocated for storing the purchases.
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