Cocoa prices look unlikely to stay for long around their five-month lows, as the impact of political unrest further slows supplies from Ivory Coast, Commerzbank analysts have said.

The bank blamed the falls in fellow soft commodities coffee and sugar, which has been dented by demand fears, for the slide of 5% in benchmark London cocoa values this week and 6% in New York's.

"The cocoa price was drawn into the downtrend," the German bank said, also noting the impact of an exit by speculative investors, who have cut their net long positions by 40% in three weeks.

The chocolate ingredient, which hit a 30-year high in New York in December and a 32-year top in London last month, was poised to rebound as a rapid slowdown in deliveries from growers to Ivory Coast ports hit home.

'Massive slowdown' 

Deliveries, which had been running above last year's by 15% in January, were now, at 836,000 tonnes, only 3.5% ahead.

"This is an indication that the cocoa crop in the world's largest cocoa producing country has seen a massive slowdown during the past five weeks, implying that this season's crop volume will not meaningfully exceed that of last year," the bank said.

Political unrest in Ivory Coast, where at least 12 people have died in protests against President Laurent Gbagbo's decision to dissolve the government and the electoral commission, meant "additional temporary delivery disruptions are likely".

With the cocoa market on course for what some analysts have said is a fourth successive year of production shortfall, "cocoa prices are unlikely to remain below the US$3,000 [a tonne] mark for a long period of time".

'Favourable' supply outlook 

However, Terry Roggensack, the Hightower Report analyst, said that the lack of market reaction to the Ivory Coast protests "clearly showed" that they were not, as yet, a serious impediment to supplies.

This was in part down to the timing of the demonstrations, at the end of the main production season.

"Since the main harvest is nearly complete and production continues to outpace last year's levels, the political turmoil has not become a bullish catalyst," Mr Roggensack said.

"Good" growing conditions for the mid-crop, due later in the year, meant the outlook for supplies looked "favourable" too.

London cocoa for May, the best-traded contract, traded 15 tonnes lower at £2,170 a tonne in lunchtime deals in London.

New York's May contract stood down $24 at $2,921 a tonne.

Ivory Coast was on Wednesday reported has having announced a new government that includes opposition politicians and fewer ministers, although some major posts, including agriculture, have yet to be filled.