China looks set to rise up the league of corn importers, but to avoid a top-table position for now, Barclays Capital has said, in a report which forecast the country will remain a big buyer of foreign soybeans.

There has been a "sea of change" in China's status in global corn trade, with the country losing the position as a significant net corn exporter it had until 2007-08.

"Sine then its exports have fallen precipitously," the investment bank said, noting a 57% slump to 93,000 tonnes in shipments in the first 11 months of last year, according to Chinese customs data.

That figure was not far above imports, which jumped 23% to 50,000 tonne, a divergence BarCap foresees continuing.

"We expect its corn exports to remain weak and its imports to rise," the bank said.

Discussion point 

The prospect of China's return to notable corn imports, not seen since the mid-1990s, has been the subject of significant debate, given its potential for making huge changes to global grain trade.

While official Chinese data show domestic production matched demand with room to spare, private analysts have put the harvest as low as 140m tonnes, flagging damage to frost and drought.

Political will 

Nonetheless, BarCap highlighted that China's political imperatives of maintaining self-sufficiency in grains meant it was likely to avoid a return to prolonged corn imports.

Soybean imports, however, looked likely to remain robust, as economic growth continues to whet China's appetite.

"Strong Chinese demand…  provides the most significant upside risk to [soybean] prices in a market awash with fresh supply," BarCap said, citing a central forecast that prices will "edge lower" in coming months.