The Siberian campaign may yet see Russia's wheat harvest end on a high note, and beat some downbeat expectations - an outcome made more likely by positive signals from Kazakhstan, SovEcon said.
Many commentators have cautioned that Russia's wheat crop, while set to come in far larger than last year's drought-hit 37.7m tonnes, will fall well short of the US Department of Agriculture's 54.0m-tonne estimate, and potentially below 50m tonnes.
Such warnings gained momentum on Wednesday when Russia's farm ministry cut to 90m tonnes, from an initial 95m tonnes, its forecast for domestic grains production overall.
"This indicates that estimates of 49m-51m tonnes of Russian wheat production is more accurate than the USDA's estimate," Brian Henry at Benson Quinn Commodities said.
Earlier this week, Goldman Sachs said that "we still see downside risk to the USDA's Russian production estimates".
'A lot of rain'
However, SovEcon – the influential Moscow-based consultancy, which earlier in the season cut its own wheat harvest estimate to 51.0m tonnes, given the dryness in some major production areas - said that the newly-started Siberian harvest held the potential for prompting it to upgrade its forecast.
Andrey Sizov Jr, the SovEcon managing director, said: "Siberia has had a lot of rain there.
"If they have had enough sun too, and get enough time to harvest, they could be in for a good crop, which would help the total figure for Russia."
Such ideas had gained ground with the improved hopes for the Kazakh wheat crop, which the USDA on Monday upgraded by 2.5m tonnes to 17.0m tonnes - citing strong rains.
"The amount of total precipitation from April through July was among the highest in the past 20 years, and conditions in the key production region were favourable as the wheat crop advanced through the critical flowering stage in mid-to-late July," USDA officials said.
Mr Sizov said: "Crop conditions are the same in much of Siberia as Kazakhstan. These are neighbouring areas.
"If Siberia does produce a large harvest, we may yet revise upwards our 51.0m-tonne estimate."
Progress so far
Russia's harvest is particularly closely watched because of the country's status as a major supplier of competitively priced grains, whose harvest results are seen as having a large influence on world values.
As of Tuesday, Russian farmers had harvested 33.4m tonnes of wheat, at an average yield of 3.05 tonnes per hectare, compared with figures of 26.7m tonnes and 2.24 tonnes per hectare a year before, farm ministry data show.
Nonetheless, that is smaller than some initial expectations, with dryness in areas such as the Volga Valley reducing potential, and some rains slowing harvest progress.
One major commodities house, with Russian farming operations, reported last week that the "only problem showing up at the moment" in the greater European harvest picture "is in central regions of Russia where heavy rainfall is damaging both quality and yields".