A pullback in Australian cattle prices from their highest levels for 18 months is likely to prove only temporary, despite a loosening grip on Japanese imports, Rabobank has said.
Animal prices, as measured by Australia's benchmark eastern young cattle indicator, eased to Aus$3.46 per kilogramme in this week from Aus$3.54 late last month, the highest level since October 2008.
While prices might continue a "seasonal decline", the correction looked unlikely to outlast the month, with the market "rising again through to winter", Rabobank said, in comments echoing those from rival National Australia Bank last month.
Further increases would renew a remarkable rally with prices rebounding by one quarter since mid-December.
Japan setback
Australia is suffering a loss of share in Japan, its biggest beef export market, after Tokyo lifted a ban on US imports imposed seven years ago after an outbreak of BSE.
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World's biggest beef exporters, 2010 (year-on-year change)
1: Brazil, 1.87m tonnes (+20%)
2: Australia, 1.35m tonnes (-2.9%)
3: US, 837,000 tonnes (+6.6%)
4: India, 700,000 tonnes (+3.7%)
5: New Zealand, 517,000 tonnes (-1.5%)
World, 7.21m tonnes (+1.4%)
Source: USDA |
US data show a 21% jump to nearly 12,000 tonnes a month in Japanese imports of American beef, helped by the strengthening of the yen against the US dollar.
However, other industry dynamics for Australian cattle prices remain positive, with economic revival expected to boost beef demand from many other importers.
Meanwhile, good pasture conditions, helped by widespread rains, have boosted demand for cattle from graziers, while low grain prices are widening feedlot margins.
Argentine clampdown
Separately, Rabobank highlighted Argentina's decline as a beef shipper, with the country introducing suggested retail prices in the domestic market and restricting exports.
"These measures have been implemented in order to provide low-cost beef for Argentinean consumers - a government policy which has been impacting cattle producers in the country for over five years," Rabobank said.
Argentina's beef exports are expected by US officials to fall to 390,000 tonnes this year, down by nearly half since 2005.