Europe's poultry farmers, who dodged the bullet of the world financial crisis, will prove unable to escape the impact of high grain prices, bringing to an end a four-year run of solid growth.

European Union broiler production had, unexpectedly, grown throughout the world recession, supported by a switch by cost-conscious consumers to chicken from more expensive red meats.

"Poultry meat, which is the cheapest source of protein, was less affected," a report from US Department of Agriculture officials from across Europe said.

Overall expansion had reached 2% in both 2008 and 2009, with growth in the UK, the region's top producer, approaching 7% last year.

Grind to a halt

However, the rebound in grain prices, whose low prices last year helped producers keep prices low, represented a bigger threat, and would slow production growth to "less than 1%" in 2011 as farmers' margins shrink.

The slowdown will come in the face of the eradication of export growth which over the last three years has averaged more than 8% a year, helped by the weakening of the euro and the relative resilience of the Middle East, a major buyer of French chicken.

Shipments have also been supported by a jump in purchases to Russia, which for most of this year blocked imports from the US on food safety grounds.

"In 2011, EU exports are forecast to stagnate as competitors are expanding production and high feed costs are expected to reduce… the competitiveness of the EU poultry sector," the report said.

Power of labelling

At least the region's own customers will keep on purchasing more, the USDA officials forecast, pegging consumption growth at 100,000 tonnes next year.

This system had proved effective in promoting domestically-reared chickens over those even from neighbouring countries, prompting an expansion drive by German poultry processors.

"As a result self-sufficiency for broiler meat increased from 92% in 2004 to 99% in 2007 and 105% in 2009," the report said.