UK sowings for next year's harvest look set to buck the European trend of raised winter grain area at the expense of spring-crop seedings, with rains adding autumn planting setbacks to their list of damage to agriculture.

Strategie Grains on Thursday forecast sharp drops in spring sowings of grains - such as barley, down 8%, and corn, down 2.5% - as farmers raise seedings of winter cereals, by 2.5% in the case of soft wheat.

The dynamic reflects expectations that farms will not, as in February, suffer the frost damage to winter grains which prompted them to reseed with spring crops, resulting in unusually large areas of the likes of spring barley.

However, in the UK, the rains which have followed the wettest summer in a century with yet more moisture, are preventing many growers from sowing winter grains, prompting expectations that they will be forced to leave unusually large areas vacant for spring plantings.

'Barely started'

While some farmers have nearly finished seedings, "some have barely started", Richard Whitlock, a director at the HGCA crop bureau said.

"Some are saying they may not be able to get on to the fields at all" thanks to the extent of the rains, which have already cost the UK an estimated 4m tonnes in wheat production, leaving the country on course, unusually, to be a net importer in 2012-13.

Mr Whitlock told Agrimoney.com that some growers near where he lives in eastern England had less  than 20% of winter grains in the ground.

"There will be more area left over to spring," meaning extra sowings of crops such as spring barley and beans, he said.

Barley boost

At Swiss-based consultancy RMI Analytics, Matthias Wrees said that the poor UK planting conditions meant there was a "good chance that farmers will plant more spring barley for next season".

This could potentially return the country to exporting malting barley, which in the UK typically comes from spring crop, after a disappointing harvest this year left users, in particularly in northern areas, facing the need for imports, likely from Scandinavia.

However, there is mixed speculation over the degree to which winter wheat sowings will be hurt, with talk in the seed industry that this will be one of the worst-affected crops, but anecdotal evidence from farmers suggesting that many are hanging on to sow even in January – later than normal, but still an option in some areas.

Rapeseed decline?

However, it appears that seedings of rapeseed, for which the sowings window has already closed, have already been affected, leading potentially to a drop in area for a crop which has been increasingly popular in the UK.

Rapeseed area for the 2012 harvest hit a record 755,000 hectares, up 75% in a decade.

And what has emerged is poorly developed, thanks to the weather, farmers told Agrimoney.com.

A drop in area in the UK, where rapeseed is by far the biggest oilseed crop, would also run against the European trend, with Strategie Grains seeing overall EU oilseed area rise by 500,000 hectares to 11.8m hectares.

Slugs feast

Mr Whitlock also highlighted the threat to ground which has been sown from the slugs encouraged by the wet conditions.

"Some farmers have never had such a bad time with slugs," which were following rows of seed "eating one seed and then just going on to the next one", he said.