11:14 UK, 2nd February 2010, by Agrimoney.com
South Africa corn thrives, while Zimbabwe's wilts

Strong rains, and a switch from sunflowers and wheat, have put South Africa on course for a bumper corn harvest, while crops in neighbouring Zimbabwe face failure thanks to drought.

South Africa may be on course to match the record corn yield of 4.96 tonnes per hectare reached in 2009-10, after the disruptive El Nino weather pattern identified last year failed to deliver the dry weather than many forecasters had expected.

"Most of South Africa's grain producing area [received] good rains during December and January," Dirk Esterhuizen, the US Department of Agriculture's attaché in Pretoria, said.

With plantings jumping by 8.2% to 2.63m hectares, commercial production may be on course to rise to 12.5m tonnes, supporting a 25% jump to 2.5m tonnes in exports.

"South Africa is set to produce a corn surplus again this season," Mr Esterhuizen said.

Crop 'disaster' 

His report comes the day after farmers in Zimbabwe –a country once termed the breadbasket of southern Africa - reported that their corn harvest would be a "disaster" thanks to dry weather and political unrest.

The Commercial Farmers' Union, which represents the country's remaining white commercial farmers, placed production at some 500,000 tonnes this year, less than half last year's harvest and short of the 1.8m tonnes needed for self sufficiency.

The Zimbabwe Commercial Farmers' Union, which represents black commercial farmers, also said that the country was likely to suffer a food "deficit".

The troubles in Zimbabwe's farm sector have been exacerbated by a decade of evictions of white farmers by the regime of President Robert Mugabe, who has often settled the land with subsistence growers, or those with little agricultural experience.

Wheat rejected 

South Africa's exports to Zimbabwe have actually slumped to 48,000 tonnes in the May-to-January period, compared with 533m tonnes for the previous 12 months, with Harare opting for lower-priced grain from Malawi instead, Mr Esterhuizen said.

South Africa corn dynamics, 2010-11 (year-on-year change)

Area harvested: 3.1m hectares (+7.0%)

Production: 13.0m tonnes (+3.4%)

Exports: 2.5m tonnes (+25%)

Domestic consumption: 10.2m tonnes (+2.0%)

Ending stocks: 4.05m tonnes (+8.7%)

Source: USDA attache report. Includes production from subsistance farmers. Marketing year begins May 2010

However, exports to Kenya, which has also suffered drought, were at 773,000 tonnes already twice the level of those for the full 2008-09 year.

He added that the increase in corn sowings to well above the 2.2m hectares recommended by grain group Grain SA reflected a slump in the popularity of sunflowers, whose planting fell by 33%, and of wheat.

"Twelve percent less wheat was planted during winter due to the unprofitability of the wheat production in South Africa," the report said.

"Many of these wheat fields were planted with corn this season."



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