Strong competition from South America will prevent US soybean exports scoring a fresh record this year, despite a bumper American crop and soaring demand from China.

America's soybean crop will hit an all-time high of 94.8m tonnes (3.48bn bushels) in 2010-11, 1.4m tonnes (50m bushels) higher than previously expected, the US Department of Agriculture said in its latest monthly global crop supply and demand report.

The figure will be supported by a record yield of 44.7 bushels per acre, the report said, surprising analysts who had expected small falls in both production and yield estimates.

"Hot, humid conditions prevailed throughout much of the major soybean-producing areas mid-month, maintaining a rapid pod-setting pace" in many areas, with "timely late-month rainfall" helping pod-filling in parts of the Corn Belt, the USDA said.

Chinese hunger

On the demand side, the forecast for foreign purchases by China, the top importer, was also raised, by 3.0m tonnes to 55.0m tonnes - also a record.

Sales to Egypt too have "dramatically grown", boosted by its burgeoning crushing sector and demand for soybean meal.

"However, the record pace of US sales is not currently expected to translate to record export volumes in the coming year, given projected large crops in South America," the USDA said.

Harvests in Argentina and Brazil - while lower than last year's, when they were blessed by plentiful El Nino rains - are, at 50.0m tonnes and 65.0m tonnes respectively, expected to come in well ahead of historical levels.

'Counterintuitive'

The data were viewed as likely to undermine Chicago soybean prices, with US Commodities saying they would "provide some pressure" to the market.

Rabobank analysts termed the report "bearish" for soybeans, adding that the upward revision in the yield estimate was "counterintuitive" given the decline of the condition of the US crop, in weekly ratings data.

"We still believe that the final US soybean yield is unlikely to reach the USDA's 44.7 bushels per acre forecast," the bank said.

Soybeans for September closed 1.4% lower at $10.23 ½ a bushel in Chicago, with the bettter-traded November lot losing the same percentage to $10.31 a bushel.