17:16 UK, 16th July 2010, by Agrimoney.com
Squeeze fears help London cocoa to contract high

Liffe's September cocoa lot hit a contract high, after North American chocolate makers raised demand by more than analysts had expected, and data showed the biggest delivery against London futures since 1996.

The September lot, in its first day as London's spot contract, rose by 2.1% to �2,470 a tonne.

The increase followed data from the Washington-based National Confectioners Association showing the cocoa grind in Canada, Mexico and the US rising 12.1% to 117,657 tonnes in the April-to-June period.

While a slowdown from the 16.2% seen in the previous three months, the figure was higher than the 4-8% investors had expected.

"There was some talk that the strong first quarter number was about restocking after the downturn, and would not be repeated," a London trader told Agrimoney.com.

"It looks like this effect was not so big."

Huge delivery 

In London, the Liffe futures exchange saw its second-largest delivery on record, of 240,100 tonnes, against a contract - the July lot which expired on Thursday at a 32-year high.

North America's cocoa grind, (year-on-year change)

Q2 2010: 117,657 tonnes, (+12.1%)

Q1 2010: 116,122 tonnes, (+16.2%)

Q4 2009: 111,986 tonnes, (-1.5%)

Q3 2009: 118,405 tonnes, (-0.5%)

Q2 2009: 105,123 tonnes, (-6.8%)

Source: NCA. Data includes Mexico

The biggest buyer was BNP Paribas Commodity Futures, which took 102,450 tonnes, although the exchange does not give the identify of final buyers, only of brokers acting on their behalf.

The prospect of a huge chunk of cocoa getting into buyers' hands - at a time when London had, at 246,100 tonnes, only just enough cocoa in its warehouses as of the start of the week to fulfil the tenders � raised concerns of a potential shortfall in supplies over coming months.

Monopoly fears 

"The concern is that there will be a monopoly over current supply," allowing the buyer significant power over the market, and potentially limiting supplies available to tender against the September contract, a City analyst said.

The buyer could also "hope futures will rise, allowing them to take a profit".

The September lot closed up 1.0% at �2,445 a tonne.

Its New York equivalent settled up 0.7% at $3,165 a tonne.

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