Beef cattle farmers look placed for a better year, even if economic recovery proves weak, as US consumers compete with exporters for falling supplies of the meat, a leading academic has said.

Live cattle prices look set to recover the $9-per-hundredweight loss suffered last year, when weak consumer demand amid the recession had a "devastating impact" on the market, Purdue University economist Chris Hurt said.

The severity of the market's reaction to the downturn implied that "it may be possible for even modest economic recovery, in the range of 3%, to have a surprising strong impact on rebounding cattle prices", Mr Hurt said.

And in 2010, domestic suppliers would be competing harder with exporters, which are set to raise shipments from the US by 10%, according to US Department of Agriculture estimates.

'Healing' year 

"This year is expected to be one of healing for a battered beef industry, as smaller supplies and recovering [consumer] incomes swing cattle prices upward," he said.

"Most cattle producers will approach this year with optimism."

Prices for finished steers would, in Nebraska, rise from an average of $83 per hundredweight last year to the low $90s by the spring.

Prices of steer calves had already begun recovering, reaching $109 per hundredweight in Oklahoma last autumn, a rise of $4 year on year, and on course to reach $115-120 a hundredweight in the second half of the year.

Herd shrinks 

Beef supplies per capita in the US are set to fall by about 3% this year, Mr Hurt said, factoring in both the rise in exports and a continuing fall in production.

Even after a fall of 2.1m animals, or 7%, in the US beef cattle herd over the last decade, farmers still look intent on further shrinkage, to judge by the falling number of heifers being retained for raising into breeding cows.

"With smaller cow numbers, the 2010 calf crop is estimated to be down 102% and will be the foundation for smaller production," Mr Hurt said.