Inventories of major agricultural commodities are small enough this season to prevent prices from falling too far - but this may change in 2012-13, assuming a mild La Nina, Informa Economics said.

The forecasts reflect an estimate that US corn stocks will end the season at 746m bushels, 120m bushels below US Department of Agriculture estimates.

Soybeans will average $12.90 a bushel, well above current levels, thanks to stocks which will, at 150m bushels, end 2011-12 some 10m bushels thinner than the USDA predicts.

Lower prices ahead

However, prices next year will fall back dramatically with the fading in the spring than the renascent La Nina, seen as a less severe version of the weather event than that last season.

That will depress futures prices to $11.75 a bushel, a level rarely seen in the last year, Informa analysts told a conference at the weekend.

Corn futures will average $5.20 a bushel, a level not seen since November last year, thanks to output boosted to 14bn bushels by a rise in sowings and a rise in yield, offset somewhat by a rise in exports of the grain and higher use by livestock farmers and ethanol plants taking advantage of lower prices.

'Yields to bounce back'

Wheat futures will fall back to $6.05 a bushel, depressed by a 100m-bushel rise to 922m bushels in US inventories over 2012-13, thanks to a rise of some 1.5 bushels per acre, to 45.4 bushels per acre, in yields.

Next year, the forecast is for "yields to bounce back and press the market lower".