A second analyst in two days has forecast world wheat stocks hitting a record high next season, boosted by stronger harvests in most of the major producing countries.

Strategie Grains estimates world wheat stocks, including the durum variety used in making pasta, hitting 211m tonnes at the close of 2012-13 – matching the figure from Canada's farm ministry earlier this week.

World wheat stocks hit a record of 210.7m tonnes in 1999-2000, according to the US Department of Agriculture, with the International Grains Council having a slightly lower estimate, of 206m tonnes.

Strategie Grains' forecast reflected expectations that harvests would improve in China, Russia and the US, where winter wheat sowings were revealed last week to have risen by 3%, as well as in the European Union, the Paris-based analysis group's home patch.

The EU wheat crop, including durum, will reach 142.2m tonnes, a 3.1% rise, even if downgraded by 200,000 tonnes from last month's estimate thanks to a lower number for sowings in Germany, the region's second-ranked producer, after France.

'Somewhat heavier market'

The rises will more than offset far smaller harvests forecast for Australia and Kazakhstan, where crops enjoyed unusually benign growing conditions in 2011-12, and in Ukraine, where a dearth of rain has set back significantly autumn-sown grains.

The influential group sees some 2m hectares of autumn-sown Ukrainian wheat being abandoned, to be reseeded largely with barley and corn.

On Strategie Grains data, world wheat stocks will grow by 9m tonnes over 2012-13, making the market outlook "somewhat heavier".

"Given this outlook, we do not envisage that the EU will need to export its entire surplus in order for world supply and demand to balance," the group said.  

Indeed, total world trade will fall by some 6m tonnes.

Corn upgrade

The EU's overall grains harvest will grow more slowly than that in wheat, by 1.7% to 289.8m tonnes, held back by lower production of corn, where last year's bumper harvest looks unlikely to be repeated.

Strategie Grains upgraded, again, its estimate for last year's corn crop, by 700,000 tonnes to 65.3m tonnes, reflecting forecast of higher crops in Australia, Romania and Spain.

Nonetheless, the bloc is set to import 3.7m tonnes of corn in 2011-12, some 800,000 tonnes more than previously expected, thanks to the competitive price of supplies from the former Soviet Union, which also enjoyed a bumper harvest.

"We have sharply increased projected imports from Ukraine and Russia, as these origins remain competitive for import at south EU ports," the group said.